If you haven’t noticed, peak Emmy season is here, and voting begins in less than two weeks. In-person events have been in full swing for months, and networks and streamers have all sorts of stunts in the works to capture members’ attention. Peacock, in particular, is going above and beyond for “Poker Face” and “The Traitors.” That being said, for what seems to be a slightly less competitive year than expected, there are still a ton of category questions that need answers. Let’s dive in, shall we?
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Is “The Last of Us” in Emmy Trouble?
To say the reception to season two of “The Last of Us” has been mixed is something of an understatement. We were unable to watch the entire run of episodes until after Cannes, but saw a ton of disappointed industry and fan discourse as the season dropped. Having caught up with it, we thought it was…fine? The show certainly loses something without Pedro Pascal. There isn’t another actor in the cast with his charisma to fill the void (the fantastic Bella Ramsey can’t do it on their own), but the Seattle sequences toward the end were compelling, and that’s not a bad cliffhanger to end the season with. The question is whether the negative social media reaction from gamers will seep its way to Television Academy voters. If it does, it’s likely not enough to hinder its overall nomination chances. That being said, will it hit the 24 nominations and eight-win total from the first go around? We’d bet the under on that, but in terms of making the major categories, it “should” be fine (emphasis on “should”).
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Who are the final Drama Series nominees?
If “The Last of Us” still makes it, as we expect it to, who are the other nominees in this category? There’s the frontrunner, “Severance,” Max’s potential spoiler, “The Pitt,” Mike White’s “The White Lotus,” and, we’re going to assume, Apple TV+’s “Slow Horses” (although it’s a peg down on the “safe” scale). That leaves three slots. Many assume “The Diplomat” will make it, and, considering how popular Netflix is with the overall Television Academy (more on that later), that’s probably a safe assumption. We’re also assuming “Andor,” the most critically acclaimed series of the bunch, will also make the cut (I mean, it better). That leaves one slot left. Is it “Squid Game” that earned less critical and guild kudos for its second season, but was still a viewership monster? (Don’t forget how Netflix’s divisive “3 Body Problem” surprised everyone by crashing the party last year.) Or, does Hulu’s “Paradise,” which is making a serious late push, find heaven with a nomination? Does another Hulu staple, “The Handmaid’s Tale,” get rewarded for a “comeback” finale season? Is “Yellowjackets,” which saw a substantial viewership bump for season three, in the mix? Or, can Peacock pull a fast one with “The Day of the Jackal”? Highly unlikely on the latter, but the backend of this category is not settled at all. There will be a surprise or two on Emmy nomination morning. 
What is happening in the TV movie category
Oh, boy. Once again, the Outstanding Television Movie category is looking to defy all odds. Netflix shocked many by submitting its hit film “Rebel Ridge” (perhaps it should submit more of these direct to Netflix films), Peacock has “Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy” (more on that in a minute), Disney+ has “Out of My Mind,” which debuted at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival, Apple TV+ has Scott Derrickson’s “The Gorge” (no theatrical release qualifier for you), MAX unexpectedly has “Am I OK?,” a 2022 Sundance Film Festival premiere which dropped on June 6 of 2024 (literally the sixth day of Emmy qualifying for this period, essentially ya dump), MAX also has the comedy misfire “The Parenting,” and Amazon Prime Video has its own movie sequel, “Another Simple Favor” and the Viola Davis hit “G20.” But wait, there’s more. Searclight Pictures and Hulu have “The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat” and the horror thriller “Hold My Breath,” and, shockingly, one of the best-reviewed contenders of this motley crew is “Nonnas,” a Netflix drop intended as a Mother’s Day consumer play just three weeks ago. And last, but not least, Jesse Armstrong’s “Mountainhead,” a very last-minute qualifier when it premieres…tomorrow. The good news is that streamers are finally not pretending that some of their original movies are for Oscar or FYC consideration in the fall. The bad news is that not many of these submissions are worth keeping this category alive.
Is Netflix going to crash the Comedy Series field?
“Hacks,” “The Studio,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “The Bear,” and “Abbott Elementary” are absolutely in. In theory, “Shrinking” should make it based on its SAG Awards Ensemble nomination alone, but…we wonder. Waiting in the wings is Netflix with not one, but four different series that could crash the party. The one assumed nominee is “Nobody Wants This,” which has been a player since it debuted last fall. The other three are Tina Fey’s “The Four Seasons,” a massive hit for the streamer that hits the Television Academy demo, Shondaland’s “The Residence,” a surprise hit that has a tons of fans in the industry, and, probably the biggest reach, “A Man on the Inside,” with Ted Danson. Many are assuming “What We Do In The Shadows” is the final nominee for its last season, or “Poker Face” closes out the field, but is everyone discounting the power of Netflix with the Television Academy? We’re not doing that again, are we?
Can anyone beat “Hacks” for the Comedy Series Emmy?
Nope. After that ninth episode? Lock it up. Lock. It. Up.
Did these programs drop too late?
You never know what will hit and what won’t, but we’re starting to wonder if a couple of programs dropped too late to make the Emmy mix. “Sirens” has positive reviews, especially for Meghan Fahy and Julianne Moore, and is still No. 1 on Netflix domestically. Was its release date a smart last-minute voter strategy? Or have most voters made up their minds in the Limited Series or Anthology category? The aforementioned “Mountainhead” was filmed just two months ago and dropped on the last qualifying day for Emmys (this past Saturday). The reviews are positive, the cast is prestige, but can it crack that often insane Television movie category? Prime Video’s “Overcompensating” appears to be a nice hit for the streamer and has a ton of positive notices (and hype), but did its arrival on May 15 hurt its Emmy chances? Would it be a bigger player if it premiered even four weeks earlier? (Cough, likely).
Where are the outdoor FYC ads
Has anyone noticed a significant drop in Emmys FYC ads over the greater Los Angeles area? Perhaps this will change in the next fortnight, but we’ve especially noticed in Hollywood-West Hollywood, where bus shelters are usually full of them, and it’s almost zilch. Worrying trend or smarter media strategy? Ponder.
Will Renee Zellweger make awards history?
We’re still massively disappointed that “Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy” didn’t earn a theatrical release in the U.S., but history may be on the table for its star, Renee Zellweger. The two-time Oscar winner landed her first Academy Award nomination for “Bridget Jones Diary,” the first film in the series, back in 2001. 24 years later, she could earn an Emmy Award nomination for playing the same character in the Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie category after it debuted domestically on Peacock. From a bird’s eye perspective, the category is not that competitive with only Cristin Milioti (“The Penguin”), Michelle Williams (“Dying for Sex”), and Cate Blanchett (“Disclaimer”) as expected locks. So, maybe?
Will “SNL” actors get shut out?
Despite the collapse of Peak TV, “SNL” may find itself without a Comedy Supporting Actor or Supporting Actress nomination for just the second time since 2007 (the last time was in 2023). Bowen Yang, who earned a nomination in 2024, is still the series’ best hope (although Ego Nwodim deserves it more). It’s possible the series may find itself shut out of the Guest Actor or Guest Actress Comedy Series nominations, too. Maya Rudolph has been nominated in the Guest Actress category four times and won twice, but the competition is significantly steeper for both Rudolph and Yang this year. Watch this space.
Did CBS make a historic mistake with Nate Bargatze as host?
Speaking of “SNL,” did CBS misjudge Nate Bargatze’s popularity as a television draw? There seems to be some false assumptions about the standup comedian’s drawing power as a guest host on the NBC late-night staple. Sure, his first episode in 2023 earned 4.8 million viewers, which was the top-rated episode in a very low-rated season, but it wasn’t anywhere close to a historic number for “SNL.” His return this past year was 4.7 million viewers, which barely made the top 10 most-watched episodes this past year. It was almost average. The 2024 Emmy ceremony hit 6.9 million viewers, up from both 2022 and 2023. If Bargatze hits that number, will CBS think it’s a win? Will they expect more? Couldn’t Nikki Glaser have signed up for double Globe-Emmy duty?
Voting for the 2025 Primetime Emmy Award nominations begins on June 12 and ends on June 23.